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GONE FISHIN’



Corn: Is The Bullish Party Over?

Fact: Corn prices have officially gone from sizzling to fizzling. On Tuesday, June 30, the grain's prices plunged to the Chicago Board of Trade's imposed daily down limit to end at a fresh, four-month low. As for why-- the mainstream experts pointed their accusatory finger at two specific U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. To wit:

Some Thoughts on the Fractional Reserve Banking System

Here's an interesting question we've just received at EWI's Message Board: "Dear EWI, as the Madoff hoopla is going full blast today on TV, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this question: Are today's banks in their vast majority also massive ponzi schemes?" Answering a question like that can be a simple matter of definitions -- so let's give it a shot...

Dow Jones Industrial Average at 173? Not if... but Now!

True or False: The “Real” Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied more than 30% from its March 2009 low, standing near its highest level in nearly six months. That depends on who you ask. According to the mainstream experts, the answer is clearly YES. For many in this camp, the Dow’s upsurge is the “slow and steady” start of a new, “healthier” bull market.

Important Q&As You May Have Been Missing

At EWI's Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions, daily. We try and answer everyone, and the best Q&As we publish for all to see. Below are our three nominees in the "Best Question" category for the month of June. Enjoy!

China Bull Market: Take Two?

In the last seven months, the Shanghai Composite Index has enjoyed a powerful winning streak to its highest level in a year. And, according to a recent news story, "Crowds are back on Guangdong Road [China's 'Wall Street' equivalent] to discuss stocks" like tweens twittering celebrity gossip. The main topic of their conversation: Is the bull market in China back for good?

Will Deflation Show That the Emperor Has No Helicopter?

Bernanke's 2002 speech was titled, "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here." It was a manifesto which spelled out the tools and means of influence the Fed could employ in an anti-deflation policy. Seven years hence, see how Bob Prechter saw it coming seven years ago...

Will Deflation Show That the Emperor Has No Helicopter?

Bernanke's 2002 speech was titled, "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here." It was a manifesto which spelled out the tools and means of influence the Fed could employ in an anti-deflation policy. Seven years hence, see how Bob Prechter saw it coming seven years ago...

Have the Past 10 Years Been a "Lost Decade"?

While I agree that this description tries to capture what happened, it doesn't come near the reality -- that is, unless "lost" is supposed to mean the LOSSES investors suffered during TWO catastrophic bear markets in ONE decade. And if you think "catastrophic" overstates matters, well, my guess is that you probably were not "fully invested" in the stock market when things went south (twice)...

Is the Bear Finally Set to "Beat It"?

As the U.S. stock market continues its white-knuckle hold on a 20%-plus rally from early March, the mainstream experts are singing along to one song in particular: "We've Got Blue Skies" ahead in the world's leading economy. "2009 could be the year that we put the worst behind us," observes a recent Associated Press.

Stock Market Bail Out

Only the Elliott Wave model allows you to see social mood for what it is: individuals as a group, driving the stock market in swings between optimism and pessimism...

Should You Rely on Government To Protect You?

Lower tax revenues create the kind of choice that the state of California faces: raise taxes or cut services?

Soybean Prices: Without the Dancing Bears

One thing about fundamental analysis I never understood was -- if financial markets are moved by outside events, how do they know which events to respond to? Most days, the mainstream media feels like a three-ring circus of dancing "bears" in one circle and charging bulls in another, all the while prices in the related market struggle to walk a tightrope between.

Europe: Will a Record Fiscal "Injection" Save the Stock Market?

The European Central Bank made a record "liquidity injection" into Europe's money markets this week. Will it help turn things around? Before you say yes, read this insightful comment by Robert Prechter, EWI's founder and president.

All the Same Market

It’s counter-intuitive to think of stocks, rates, gold, oil, real estate, and commodities, all trending together over time, but that is exactly what these markets have done in recent years...

June 24 FOMC Meeting: Can the Fed Defeat the Bear?

t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses at the meaning of Bernanke-speak, ALL of them hope his words give the stock market something to celebrate.

Stocks: Why Are Investors "Getting Worried" Only Now?

Since its June 12 top, the DJIA has lost close to 6 percent. Blame the economic data, say the mainstream financial analysts. But why would investors who disregarded "bad fundamentals" for more than three months suddenly be worried about them? It's a puzzling situation, but only until you look at it from an Elliott wave perspective.

U.S. Dollar: How to Predict Trends, Not React to Them

What creates trends in all liquid, freely-traded markets? That depends on whom you ask. To a conventional market analyst, the answer is news stories and events -- political, economic, you name it. The Elliott Wave Principle, on the other hand, teaches that trends are shaped by the collective mood of the market participants. This quick example may help you decide who's right.

Commodity June Blossoms: Stop & Smell the Opportunities

No matter what part of the globe you live on, or whichever season is at hand, one thing is certain: In the hemisphere of commodities, summer has officially arrived. And, in the just-published June 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures (MFJ), long-time editor and Elliott Wave International's chief commodity expert Jeffrey Kennedy reveals which patterns are warm, which trends are ripe, and which opportunities are in full bloom:

(Video) Questions for Bob Prechter: What's the Role of Demographics in Forecasting?

Robert Prechter answers questions after his May 14 presentation at Bloomberg headquarters in New York for the Market Technicians Association's 2009 Symposium.

At Last: The True "Villain" of the Financial Crisis

I agreed years ago that the random walk was implausible. But I didn't come to this view because of behavioral economists, although their work over the past decade has certainly been valuable. Instead, I was persuaded by the work of someone who first challenged the financial orthodoxy more than three decades ago, specifically April 1977 ...

More Inflation: The Easiest Call on the Planet

Despite the impressive brain power behind some financial gurus' calls for hyperinflation,  Elliott Wave International maintains the opposite opinion: that the world’s financial system is in the early stages of the greatest deflation ever.

European Stocks: Putting Elliott to Work

"My experience is that when people are first exposed to the Elliott Wave Principle, they want to know when 5th waves are about to end. But after some experience, the information that becomes most useful is 'show me when a wave 2 is ending' -- because that’s the point right before strong and trending 3rd waves start."

Study: Fibonacci, the Declaration of Independence and Equality

One year ago, The Elliott Wave Theorist published a study that showed the importance of Fibonacci time durations in the establishment of political rights for African-Americans and women. It's still exciting and relevant today.

Trading with Elliott Waves

At some point after learning the basics of the Elliott Wave Principle, you've probably said to yourself -- let's try and count some waves. The Principle claims to work in any liquid, freely traded market, so let's see if it really does. Here are a couple of hurdles you'll need to overcome first...

The Star of SUGAR’S Story: Bull or Bear?

True or False -- Crude oil prices move in step with sugar prices. Reason being, the higher the cost of oil, the greater the demand for alternative fuels such as cane-based ethanol. Answer: That depends on whom you ask. Here are some recent statistics...

Happy Phi Day: Fibonacci Sequence Explained

With Phi Day, 6-18, quickly approaching this week, it's time to finish explaining how phi, the Fibonacci sequence and wave analysis are intertwined.

Get Ready To Celebrate Phi Day With Us on 6.18

This year, once again, we're celebrating Phi Day on its numerical representation, which is .618 or June 18, and we ask you to join with us to start spreading the word.

Steep Yield Curve: Sign of Economic Recovery?

The recent sell-off in the 30-year US Treasury bond has created a very steep yield curve that, in normal times, would seemingly help stimulate increased borrowing, lending and economic activity. Buttoday’s times are anything but normal. Let's examine what the yield curve is really telling us now.

Prechter on T-Bonds, THEN and NOW

That was in 2002. Jump ahead to 2008 and early 2009 -- we've seen the gargantuan size of the U.S. government's bailout schemes, and watched the Federal Reserve's unprecedented steps to keep interest rates low. Clearly the time had come for Prechter to focus again on government debt...

U.S. Dollar: Look Out for Sentiment Extremes

When market players' sentiment reaches an optimistic or pessimistic extreme, more often than not you can expect prices to reverse. Ironically, those also are the moments when almost everyone (everyone who is not paying attention to sentiment measures) is convinced that the trend will continue. The latest action in the U.S. dollar is a good example of that...

The Stock Market Decline: Guess From These 8 Reasons

Okay, no. 2, 4, and 7 are also real stories, though no one cited them as the "reason" the market was down...